Data uncertainty in Tanzania MVD outbreak

In a recent press conference, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, in conjunction with Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, confirmed the outbreak of Marburg virus in her country. This development served to corroborate suspicions that had emerged in recent days, following the reporting of multiple fatalities in the Kagera region. The current data about the virus’s mortality rate remains ambiguous. As of January 11, 2025, nine suspected cases of Marburg virus disease (MVD) had been reported, including eight deaths, indicating a mortality rate that is consistent with the 88% fatality rate indicated by the WHO. On January 20, the data revealed 25 suspected cases, of which only one was confirmed by laboratory tests. The data set does not clarify whether the 25 suspected cases include the eight deaths recorded in recent days. Concurrently, Ghebreyesus announced that the WHO had allocated $3 million from the Health Emergencies Fund to strengthen epidemiological surveillance and case management, with supplies of testing, treatment, and protective measures for health workers. Despite the absence of a specific treatment or vaccine for Marburg haemorrhagic fever, the administration of supportive therapies, if initiated promptly, has been shown to improve the clinical course and reduce mortality from the pathogen.